We recently conducted a survey of Arlington real estate agents (46 responded to our survey) and asked them if the O'Connell proposal for lights and stadium expansion would increase, decrease or have no effect on our home values.
The results surprised us. Not only did an overwhelming majority of agents (80 percent) say the values would decline for the first row of homes that are adjacent to the private school, but a strong majority (65 percent) said the values will decline for all homes in the first block.
And a substantial number of agents believe the impact will be even broader. Thirty-five percent said homes within three blocks will decline.
The agents expect significant declines in home prices. On average, they expect that prices for the first row homes will decline by 11 percent, which works out to about $72,000 for a typical home.
Homes in the first block will decline by 9 percent, or slightly more than $60,000.
A copy of the full study is attached below.
Impact on Real Estate Values of a Proposal to Increase
the Stadium Capacity and Install Lights at Bishop O’Connell High School
December 21, 2010
SUMMARY
The installation of lights and the expansion of the stadium at Bishop O’Connell High School will bring significant changes to the Williamsburg and Arlington East Falls Church neighborhoods. So residents of those neighborhoods conducted a survey of real estate agents to determine the impact on home values.
The survey shows that an overwhelming majority of real estate agents (80 percent) expect home values will decline for houses immediately adjacent to O’Connell and that a substantial majority of agents (65 percent) believe values will also decline for homes within one block of the private school. As expected, the impact declines farther from the school, although 35 percent of agents predicted that home values would decline within a three-block radius of the school.
The decline in home values would be significant:
- Agents estimated that the first row of homes would decline in value by 11 percent, or about $72,000 for a typical home.
- Homes in the first block would fall by slightly over 9 percent, or about $60,000 for an average home.
As one agent wrote on the survey, “You will absolutely see an impact on value.” Another wrote that "the residential area is too dense for any such lighting . . .This goes against original planning of the area."
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METHODOLOGY
To calculate the impact of lights and a stadium expansion at Bishop O’Connell, residents of the neighborhood distributed surveys to Arlington real estate agencies (see Appendix 2).
The study relied on local agents because they have tremendous familiarity with the real estate market in Arlington, the variations in different neighborhoods and how changes to a school would impact the desirability of a nearby home.
The survey sought to determine 1) if the agent believed the O’Connell proposal would increase, decrease or have little or no impact on home values; 2) the amount of the increase or decrease; and 3) if agents had any comments about the impact. To calculate the impact on homes of varying distances from O’Connell, the survey asked the same question for three sets of homes:
- Homes that are immediately adjacent to O’Connell, in the first row along Little Falls Road, 26th, Trinidad or Underwood Streets (34 homes).
- Homes that are within one block of O’Connell (156 homes)
- Homes that are within three blocks of O’Connell (406 homes).
Eighty-eight surveys were distributed and 46 were returned, a response rate of more than 50 percent. The surveys were anonymous so agents would feel free to be candid with their answers.
Tracking numbers were used on each survey to keep track of return rates, but the numbers were not associated with individual agents. Forty-three of the responses were returned on the survey forms; three were returned in email answers that were equated with questions on the survey.
RESULTS OF THE STUDY
The results were tabulated on a spreadsheet. Agents were given the option of estimating the change in home value using a percentage or actual dollars. Because most agents used percentage, the four responses that used dollars were translated into percentages based on a typical home valued at $650,000.
The findings:
- None of the agents expect that the O’Connell plan will result in higher home values -- not even for homes three blocks from the private school.
- An overwhelming majority of agents -- 80 percent -- believe the homes that are contiguous with O’Connell will decline in value.
- A substantial majority of agents -- 65 percent -- believe the homes within one block will also suffer a decline in value.
- A smaller but still substantial number of agents -- 35 percent -- believe that homes within three blocks will suffer a decline in value.
The agents were asked to quantify the impact of the increase or decrease:
- Agents estimated that the 34 homes immediately adjacent to O’Connell will decline in value by an averageof 11.07 percent, which would reduce the value of a typical home by $71,955.
- The agents estimated that the 156 homes within one block of the private school would fall in value by an average of 9.28 percent, which would reduce the value of a typical home by $60,320.
- The value of all 406 homes within three blocks is expected to decline 11.8 percent, or $76,700 for a typical home. We were surprised at this finding initially, but believe it reflects the feelings of a smaller group of agents, the 35 percent that believe values will decline for that larger radius. In general, this group believes the lights and stadium will have a greater impact on the entire neighborhood.
COMMENTS OF THE AGENTS
Of all 46 respondents, about one-third provided comments about the O’Connell proposal and its impact on home values.
Some excerpts:
"Parking on neighborhood streets will be awful. Will have negative impact on appeal and access."
"The closer to a high school, the lower the price regardless...lights don't help!"
"Lights and noise from the stadium will definitely negatively impact the values of the homes nearby."
"The residential area is too dense for any such lighting adding much more congestion/traffic and will have a negative impact overall to values. This goes against original planning of the area."
"You will absolutely see an impact on value."
-- Submitted by residents of Williamsburg and Contact: Bill Adair
Arlington/East Falls Church Civic Associations
Attachment 2: Survey questionnaire
Real Estate Survey
Impact of Lighted Fields and
Expanded Stadium on Home Values
The residents of the Williamsburg and Arlington East Falls Church Civic Associations are conducting this survey to measure the impact of stadium lights and an expanded football stadium on home values. We would appreciate your answers to these questions. You do not need to give your name.
As you may know, Bishop O’Connell High School (6600 N. Little Falls Road) has traditionally held its football, soccer, baseball and lacrosse games during daylight hours and has used its sports complex only for its own events. O’Connell is now seeking approval from Arlington County to reconstruct its fields, turning them into an NCAA-level athletic facility with 11 light poles (70- to 90-feet-tall), 30 percent more seats and an expanded PA System. The high school plans to allow Marymount University to hold collegiate events throughout the year, with lights as late as 11 p.m. every day.
The O’Connell proposal will lead to many more nighttime events at the school, bringing traffic, commotion and causing a parking shortage. The neighborhood is conducting this survey to determine the impact on home values.
1. What impact do you believe the lights and stadium expansion will have on home values for the homes closest to O’Connell, those in the first row immediately across the street? The project will:
_____________ Increase home values
_____________ Decrease home values
_____________ Have little or no impact on home values
They will increase/decrease the value of a typical home by $________ or _________ percent
2. What impact do you believe the lights and stadium expansion will have on home values for the homes within a 1-block radius? The project will:
_____________ Increase home values
_____________ Decrease home values
_____________ Have little or no impact on home values
They will increase/decrease the value of a typical home by $________ or _________ percent
(Over)
3. What impact do you believe the lights and stadium expansion will have on home values for homes near the school but outside a 1-block radius (that is, homes that are 2 to 3 blocks from O’Connell). The project will:
_____________ Increase home values
_____________ Decrease home values
_____________ Have little or no impact on home values
They will increase/decrease the value of a typical home by $________ or _________ percent
We welcome any comments you may have about the impact of the lights and stadium expansion on home values:
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